CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: China ships more humanoid robots than the U.S. as investors diverge on AI bets
In recent developments, China has taken a significant lead in the shipment of humanoid robots, surpassing the United States in this burgeoning sector. Despite this achievement, the valuations of China’s largest humanoid robot startups remain considerably lower than those of their American counterparts. This article explores the factors contributing to this disparity and the shifting dynamics of investment in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).
The Current Landscape of Humanoid Robotics
Chinese humanoid startups are actively shipping robots for various applications, including factories and shopping malls. In contrast, most U.S. startups are still in the development phase, resulting in a stark valuation gap. For instance, the U.S. startup Figure has a valuation of at least $39 billion, while its Texas-based rival Apptronik is valued at $5 billion. In comparison, the Chinese startup Galbot, which claims the title of the highest-valued privately-held company in the sector, has a valuation of just over $3 billion.
Valuation Disparities
Among the more than 100 humanoid startups in China, AI2 Robotics has achieved a valuation of approximately 20 billion yuan (around $2.93 billion). Despite being significantly lower than Figure’s valuation, AI2 Robotics has successfully secured contracts with foreign manufacturers, showcasing its competitive edge. The CEO of AI2 Robotics, Eric Guo, emphasizes that “commercialization and tech capability aren’t contradictory,” suggesting that the company’s practical applications may soon attract more attention from investors, including those from the U.S.
Global Robot Shipment Rankings
According to Omdia’s rankings, Chinese humanoid startups dominated the global robot shipment market in 2025, claiming the top six spots. The only U.S. companies to make the top ten were Figure and Tesla. While Figure has gained notable recognition, Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, remains largely in the development stage.
Perceptions and Investment Strategies
One of the reasons for the valuation gap lies in how investors perceive these companies. U.S. humanoid startups are often viewed as expansive artificial intelligence platforms, while their Chinese counterparts are seen more as industrial hardware ventures. Rui Ma, founder of Tech Buzz China, notes that if China continues to dominate in manufacturing and real-world deployment, U.S. venture capital funds might miss out on significant opportunities.
Geopolitical Influences on Investment
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have complicated the investment landscape. U.S. pension funds, which once heavily invested in Chinese startups through venture capital, have reduced their exposure due to increased regulatory scrutiny on both sides. This shift has created an opening for Middle Eastern funds, which have begun to back Chinese venture capital and invest in locally developed robots.
Middle Eastern Investment Opportunities
Middle Eastern investors appear to be navigating the geopolitical landscape more flexibly. For example, Limx Dynamics, supported by China-based Future Capital, recently attracted its first foreign investor from Dubai, Stone Venture. Winston Ma, an adjunct professor at New York University, highlights that approximately 90% of U.S. venture capital is directed towards software, leaving a critical gap in hard tech that sovereign funds are well-positioned to fill.
Rapid Growth in Chinese Robotics
China’s experience in manufacturing electric vehicles and drones is now translating into humanoid robot production. Future Capital, which has previously invested in electric vehicle company Li Auto, announced that another portfolio company, sports robot company Pongbot, raised nearly 200 million yuan in less than six months. This rapid influx of capital, albeit at a smaller scale than in the U.S., indicates a growing interest in the sector.
Changing Dynamics for Investors
The diverging trajectories of U.S. and Chinese humanoid robotics also present new opportunities for investors. Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions, notes that American companies are increasingly traveling to Shenzhen to purchase humanoid robot components and integrate them with U.S. software, indicating a collaborative approach to innovation.
Economic Context
China’s economy has shown resilience, with a reported growth rate of 5% in the first quarter of 2026. However, retail sales have lagged, with only a 1.7% year-on-year increase in March. The growth in exports has also slowed, attributed to the ongoing impact of global conflicts on demand.
Future Prospects
Looking ahead, several key events are on the horizon that may influence the robotics and tech landscape in China. The Volkswagen Group is set to unveil four new car models in Beijing, and the Beijing Auto Show is scheduled for late April. Additionally, the Canton Fair in Guangzhou will take place from mid-April to early May, focusing on export opportunities.
Conclusion
In summary, while China leads in the shipment of humanoid robots, the valuation gap with U.S. startups remains significant. As geopolitical tensions reshape the investment landscape, Middle Eastern funds are stepping in to fill the void left by U.S. investors. The future of humanoid robotics appears promising, with potential for increased collaboration and innovation across borders.
Note: This article is based on insights from CNBC’s The China Connection newsletter, which provides analysis on the developments in China’s economy and technology sectors.
