Kanpur, Prayagraj at risk of severe damage if powerful quake strikes: IIT study
A recent study conducted by the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur (IIT-K) has raised alarms regarding the seismic vulnerability of Kanpur and Prayagraj. The research indicates that these regions could experience severe damage if an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher were to strike.
Research Overview
The study, led by Dr. Nihar Ranjan Patra from the civil engineering department at IIT-K, has been ongoing for 17 years. It focuses on the high liquefaction potential of the alluvial soil found along the Ganga river belt. Liquefaction can significantly amplify ground shaking and destabilize buildings, making the findings particularly concerning for local residents.
Soil Analysis Methodology
The IIT-K research team analyzed soil samples collected from various locations across Gujarat, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar over nearly two decades. The analysis involved drilling boreholes up to 30 to 40 meters deep at selected sites in Kanpur and Prayagraj, which is significantly deeper than the typical 10.30 meters used in other studies.
Key Findings
The study revealed that in several areas of Kanpur and Prayagraj, the top 8 to 10 meters of soil is loose, sandy, and water-saturated. These conditions are highly susceptible to liquefaction during strong seismic events. In some pockets, the effects of liquefaction could extend as deep as 30 to 40 meters.
What is Liquefaction?
Liquefaction occurs when intense shaking causes waterlogged soil to temporarily lose its strength and behave like a liquid. This phenomenon can lead to:
- Buildings tilting or sinking
- Cracking of roads and railway tracks
- Rupturing of underground utilities
Areas near riverbanks and low-lying regions are particularly vulnerable to these effects.
Vulnerability of Localities
The study identified several localities in Kanpur and Prayagraj for detailed soil analysis, including:
- Bithoor
- Mandhana
- Panki
- Barra
- Chakeri
- Ratanlal Nagar
- Naramao
- Areas around IIT-K
Additionally, parts of Varanasi were found to exhibit similar soil behavior, raising concerns about the broader region’s seismic risk.
Seismic Risk Assessment
According to India’s seismic zoning map, sections of Kanpur and Prayagraj fall under Zones III and IV, which denote moderate to high seismic risk. Although Uttar Pradesh is not located in the country’s highest seismic zone, experts caution that the Indo-Gangetic plains remain vulnerable due to deep alluvial deposits and their proximity to tectonic activity in the Himalayan belt.
Concerns Over Urbanization
The study highlights several concerns related to rapid urbanization in these areas:
- High-rise construction without detailed soil investigations
- Weak enforcement of building codes
- Older structures not designed to withstand earthquakes
These factors contribute to an increased risk of severe damage during a major earthquake, particularly for older buildings and infrastructure.
Recommendations for Mitigation
In light of the findings, Dr. Patra has made several recommendations to mitigate the risks associated with potential earthquakes:
- Mandatory soil testing before construction projects.
- Strict adherence to seismic design codes for new buildings.
- Retrofitting of vulnerable public buildings, such as hospitals, schools, and government offices.
- Utilization of earthquake hazard maps in urban planning, a practice that is common in many countries but rarely enforced in India.
Preparedness and Awareness
While earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, the study emphasizes that preparedness can significantly reduce casualties and losses. Public awareness and education about seismic risks are crucial for the residents of Kanpur and Prayagraj.
Conclusion
The IIT-K study serves as a wake-up call for the residents and authorities of Kanpur and Prayagraj. With the potential for severe damage from a significant earthquake, it is imperative to take proactive measures to ensure the safety and resilience of these communities.
Note: This article is based on a study conducted by IIT-K and does not reflect the views of Mid-day management.
